Γαληνός έγραψε: ↑
22 Νοέμ 2020, 00:39
Δείτε πως γίνεται η στατιστική εκτίμηση της υπερβαλλουσας θνησιμοτηταςHow is excess mortality measured and who measures it?
National statistical agencies publish actual weekly deaths and averages of past ‘normal’ deaths.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports ‘normal’ deaths for England and for Wales as the averages of the previous five years’ deaths. EuroMOMO’s
timely measures of weekly excess mortality in Europe allow comparisons of the mortality patterns between different time-periods and countries, and by age-groups.
At least three separate journalistic endeavours have recently engaged in the time-consuming effort of collecting and presenting more transparent excess mortality data
The Financial Times
The New York Times
EuroMOMO estimate the expected value of each country’s weekly deaths using data for the previous five years,
taking seasonal factors and trends
into account, and adjust for delays in registration.
Measuring excess mortality: the case of England
during the Covid-19 Pandemichttps://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downl ... ndemic.pdfhttps://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covidhttps://ourworldindata.org/covid-excess-mortality
How is excess mortality measured? Excess mortality can be measured in several ways
1. The simplest way is to take the raw number of deaths observed in a given period in 2020 – say Week 10, which ended on 8 March4 – and subtract the average number of deaths in that week over the previous years, for example the last five.
2. While the raw number of deaths helps give us a rough sense of scale, this measure has its limitations, including being less comparable across countries due to large differences in populations.
A measure that is more comparable across countries is the P-score, which calculates excess mortality as the percentage difference between the number of weekly deaths in 2020 and the average number of deaths in the same week over the previous five years.
EuroMOMO assume that a Poisson distribution, adjusted for excess dispersion is a good approximation to the underlying probability distribution of weekly deaths.
. If mortality is on an improving trend
, normal deaths would be over-estimated by the 5-year average. On the other hand, where populations are increasing or are ageing, the count of normal deaths could also be rising. EuroMOMO use statistical models to adjust for such trends
but do not provide their estimates of ‘normal’/expected deaths
Άρα όλες οι στατιστικές εκτιμήσεις που αναφέρει Ελληγενης, περιλαμβάνουν μέσους όρους τελευταίας 5ετιας για την σύγκριση των αναμενόμενων θανάτων τρέχουσας χρονιάς με τυχόν επιπλέον.
Μα ο πληθυσμός μεγαλώνει... Κ πάντα θα υπάρχει υπερβαλλουσα θνησιμότητα.
Έρχεται λοιπόν το EuroMOMO κ κάνει μια στάθμιση σ αυτό το πρόβλημα...
Το ποσό αποτελεσματική, δεν ξέρουμε, δεν το δημοσιεύει..
Όταν κοιτάς το δεντρο κ χάνεις το δάσος.