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Could Tokyo ever go critical and make nuclear weapons?
Report says Japan has enough plutonium to make up to 6,000 nuclear weapons and has the technical ability and economic capacity to manufacture them

While the political will may be absent at present, Japan clearly has the material, the technical ability and the economic capacity to manufacture nuclear arms.

Expert estimates of how long it would take Tokyo to deploy a nuclear weapon vary from six months to five years – a range so wide as to be uninformative. Given this, it is intriguing that American Vice President Joe Biden told China’s Xi Jinping in 2016 that North Korea’s nuclear program had to be reined in since Japan could build its own nuclear bomb “overnight” – something Beijing is strongly opposed to.

Now, the previously absent political will may appear. Not only is North Korea clearly dangerous, but allies are questioning Washington’s defense commitments, particularly the steadfastness of its nuclear umbrella in Northeast Asia. Japan may soon feel compelled to put its “technical deterrence” into practice.

Even if, as recently stated, Japan intends to reduce its stockpile of plutonium, it would still have enough material for several nuclear weapons.

Japan’s stockpile of plutonium causes jitters as pact is renewed
THE ASAHI SHIMBUN

July 17, 2018 at 19:40 JST

The Asahi Shimbun

Japan's nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States was automatically extended July 16 despite growing concerns overseas about Tokyo's huge stockpile of plutonium.

The agreement, now in its 30th year, underpins Japan's problem-plagued efforts at continuing with its nuclear fuel recycling policy.

Japan is the only non-nuclear-weapons state permitted to use plutonium for peaceful purposes.

Its stockpile of this weapons-grade material, both in Japan as well as Britain and France, now stands at around 47 tons, enough to manufacture 6,000 atomic bombs.

Renewal of the agreement brought renewed criticism from other countries about Japan's intentions, especially in light of its recent decision to decommission the prototype Monju fast-breeder reactor that used reprocessed plutonium.

Because of that, Japan now is confronted by the diplomatic challenge of convincing the rest of the world that it is serious about making good use of its plutonium stockpile.

Moves by Japan to use plutonium-uranium mixed oxide fuel in conventional nuclear reactors have not spread beyond a few facilities in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami disaster in 2011 that triggered a triple meltdown at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant.

Against that background, there is growing international criticism at the exception given to Japan to reprocess spent nuclear fuel.

When South Korea was negotiating with the United States in 2015 for its own nuclear energy agreement, it pointed to Japan's arrangement and asked Washington for a similar dispensation to reprocess spent nuclear fuel.

Saudi Arabia has also sought uranium enrichment technology.

At a U.S. Senate hearing in February, Sen. Edward Markey, a Democrat from Massachusetts, said, "I think what's happening in Japan is potentially contributing to an increased risk for nuclear proliferation in that region."

William Newcomb, who once served on a U.N. panel of experts handling economic sanctions against North Korea, weighed in on the issue by citing the historic June summit in Singapore between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Newcomb suggested there could be enormous ramifications if the main result of that summit meeting was not denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but only a reduction of nuclear arms.

He said that could lead to other nations also producing nuclear weapons.

"I mean who comes to mind quickly: Japan, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, even Brazil," he said. "They all have the potential to do something very fast."

The present nuclear energy cooperation agreement with the United States went into effect in 1988. At that time, Japan held only a minimal amount of plutonium.

As construction proceeded with the Monju reactor, the Japanese government's plan to use reprocessed plutonium met little opposition because the technology seemed to offer such tremendous benefits.

At that time, Toichi Sakata was a councilor at the Japanese Embassy in Washington in charge of negotiating the nuclear energy cooperation agreement with the United States. Sakata, 69, would later serve as administrative vice minister of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology.

Recalling that period, Sakata said: "Japan not only had an advanced nuclear energy program, but it had also produced solid results. It was also a state that could be trusted."

But in the 21 years between 1995, when a sodium leak at the Monju reactor forced a shutdown of operations, and 2016, when the government formally decided to scrap the facility, Japan's plutonium stockpile increased threefold.

"If the government is to continue its nuclear fuel recycling program, it will be insufficient to only revise its plutonium usage plan," Sakata said. "The only option available will be to show the world through specific results that it is serious about not holding surplus plutonium."

(This article was written by Keisuke Katori in Washington and Toshihide Ueda, a senior staff writer in Tokyo.)

GoBack έγραψε: ↑

07 Αύγ 2018, 01:01

Καμια 100αρια δεν φτανουν δηλαδη;

stergiosbik έγραψε: ↑

07 Αύγ 2018, 10:46

Ξεχνας μηπως οτι πισω απο την Ιαπωνια υπαρχει ολη η Δυση με κατι χιλιαδες πυρηνικα.

stergiosbik έγραψε: ↑

07 Αύγ 2018, 10:46

Εγω απλως ειπα οτι ειναι αστειο να πανηγυριζει ο Πιθηκας για κατι που για την Ιαπωνια θα ειναι ευκολο αν παραστει αναγκη.
Αν σκεφτεις οτι κατι Ινδιες και Πακισταν εχουν φτιαξει πυρηνικα μαλλον θα επρεπε να το ξανασκεφτει αυτο που εγραψε.

elchav έγραψε: ↑

07 Αύγ 2018, 10:50

stergiosbik έγραψε: ↑

07 Αύγ 2018, 10:46

Ξεχνας μηπως οτι πισω απο την Ιαπωνια υπαρχει ολη η Δυση με κατι χιλιαδες πυρηνικα.

Η Δύση πρέπει να κρατήσει τα προσχήματα. Αν αποκτήσει πυρηνικά η Ιαπωνία, με τι νομιμοποίηση η Δύση θα πει όχι στα πυρηνικά άλλων χωρών;
Επίσης, δεν υπάρχει καμία περίπτωση χώρα της ΕΕ να διακινδυνεύσει τις σχέσεις της με την Κίνα γιατί τα τζαπόνια αποφάσισαν ότι πρέπει να φτιάξουν πυρηνικά. Μια χώρα που μετά τον Β' Παγκόσμιο, δεν έχει πει καν συγγνώμη για τα εγκλήματα πολέμου (χειρότερα των ναζί) που διέπραξε στην Κίνα.

stergiosbik έγραψε: ↑

07 Αύγ 2018, 10:46

Εγω απλως ειπα οτι ειναι αστειο να πανηγυριζει ο Πιθηκας για κατι που για την Ιαπωνια θα ειναι ευκολο αν παραστει αναγκη.
Αν σκεφτεις οτι κατι Ινδιες και Πακισταν εχουν φτιαξει πυρηνικα μαλλον θα επρεπε να το ξανασκεφτει αυτο που εγραψε.

Ναι, είναι όντως αστείο για κάτι τόσο αυτονόητο τεχνικά. Πρακτικά, είναι αδιανόητο

stergiosbik έγραψε: ↑

07 Αύγ 2018, 10:46

Ξεχνας μηπως οτι πισω απο την Ιαπωνια υπαρχει ολη η Δυση με κατι χιλιαδες πυρηνικα.
Εγω απλως ειπα οτι ειναι αστειο να πανηγυριζει ο Πιθηκας για κατι που για την Ιαπωνια θα ειναι ευκολο αν παραστει αναγκη.
Αν σκεφτεις οτι κατι Ινδιες και Πακισταν εχουν φτιαξει πυρηνικα μαλλον θα επρεπε να το ξανασκεφτει αυτο που εγραψε.

elchav έγραψε: ↑

07 Αύγ 2018, 10:40

Ναι, ξεφεύγει στο Northern Spirit ότι τη στιγμή που η Ιαπωνία θα αποφασίσει κάτι τέτοιο:
στην καλύτερη, θα γίνει rogue state όπως το Ιραν ή και χειρότερα
στην χειρότερη, θα ετοιμαστεί να δεχτεί την τρίτη (για αρχή και βλέπουμε) πυρηνική κεφαλή στην επικράτεια της. Για Κίνα μιλάμε, όχι τίποτα πουθενάδες