Predictions
After fitting the model with the recent data from stage II and stage III (for Wuhan), we make a series of predictions about future dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China.
• The end times of the epidemic (with zero new confirmed infected as the criterion) of Wuhan and Hubei (excluding Wuhan) are
around late-March, and around mid-March of China.
•The end times of the four first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, are
before March.
•The end time with zero un-quarantined infected as a criterion is usually earlier than that with zero new confirmed infected.
•The final infected number of the whole country is predicted to be
80, 511 individuals, among which 49, 510 are from Wuhan and 17, 679 from Hubei (excluding Wuhan), and the rest 13, 322 are from other regions of China.
• Given the inferred end times, rigorous quarantine and
control measures should be kept be14 fore March in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and before late-March in China (including Hubei).https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf